U.S. agricultural exports are projected to total $139.5 billion in fiscal year 2020, while agricultural imports are expected at $132.5 billion, according to the Economic Research Service’s latest outlook for U.S. agricultural trade. The totals represent a $4 billion increase in exports and $1.6 billion rise in imports over 2019, which would increase the trade surplus by $2.4 billion and reverse the trend of decreasing trade surplus in recent years.

Record high pork exports are projected as global demand for U.S. pork is expected to grow because of declining Asian production stemming from the outbreak of African Swine Fever. Expectations of increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans due to the relaxation of trade barriers further drive up total U.S. projected export growth, but uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak tempers the outlook.

Total U.S. imports are increased because of growth demand for horticultural products from the Americas, primarily fresh fruit, coupled with stronger imports of foreign vegetable oils. These and are slightly offset by a reduction in fresh vegetable imports.