The USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2024/25. Feb. 11, 2025. In the U.S., 2024/25 ending stocks are estimated at 1.540B bu of corn (vs. consensus 1.527B bu), 380MM bu of soybeans (vs. consensus 378MM bu), and 794MM bu of wheat (vs. consensus 799MM bu). U.S. 2024/25 stocks-to-use (STU) are now projected at 10.2% for corn (unchanged vs. prior, and 11.8% in 2023/24), 8.7% for soybeans (unchanged vs. prior, and 8.3% in 2023/24), and 39.6% for wheat (vs. prior 39.9%, and 38.3% in 2023/24). We view today’s report as neutral for U.S. farmers given U.S. soybean and corn ending stocks are just slightly above consensus. Meanwhile, 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks are slightly below and farm gate price projection is raised for U.S. new crop corn and lowered for soybeans.

Crop-Receipts

Click to enlarge

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan estimates

  • U.S. 2024/25 soybean and corn ending stocks slightly above consensus. 2024/25 U.S. corn supply is estimated at 16.655B bu (unchanged) on a yield of 179.3bu/acre (unchanged) and 82.9MM harvested acres (unchanged); demand is unchanged at 15.115B bu. Corn ending stocks of 1.540B bu (unchanged) are slightly above consensus 1.527B bu. U.S. soybean supply is estimated at 4.729B bu (unchanged) on a yield of 50.7bu/acre (unchanged) and 86.1MM harvested acres (unchanged); demand is unchanged at 4.349B bu. Soybean ending stocks of 380MM bu (unchanged) are slightly above consensus 378MM bu. For U.S. wheat, supply is estimated at 2.798B bu (unchanged) on a yield of 51.2bu/acre (unchanged) and 38.5MM harvested acres (unchanged); demand is slightly raised to 2.004B bu (vs. prior 2.000B bu) on 4MM bu higher feed use. Wheat ending stocks of 794MM bu (vs. prior 798MM bu) are slightly below consensus 799MM bu.
US-planting-Summary

Click to enlarge

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan

  • U.S. farm gate price projections raised for corn and lowered for soybeans. 2024/25 U.S. farm price projections include $4.35 corn (vs. prior $4.25, and $4.55 in 2023/24); $10.10 soybeans (vs. prior $10.20, and $12.40 in 2023/24); and $5.55 wheat (unchanged vs. prior, and $6.96 in 2023/24). Including direct government payments, cash receipts from the three major crops are projected at $119.7B (JPMe) in 2024/25, down 11% YoY.
  • Global stocks of major crops forecast down 3% YoY in 2024/25. Global STU for 2024/25 is estimated at 23.5% for corn (vs. prior 23.7%, and 25.9% in 2023/24), 30.4% for beans (vs. prior 31.4%, and 29.3% in 2023/24), and 32.0% for wheat (vs. prior 32.3%, and 33.5% in 2023/24). Ukraine’s 2024/25 wheat production is forecast flattish at 22.9MMT (unchanged), while corn production is forecast down 18% to 26.5MMT (unchanged) and corn exports are forecast down 25% YoY to 22.0MMT (vs. prior 23.0MMT). Brazil and Argentina’s soybean production is forecast up 10% (unchanged) and up 2% YoY (vs. prior up 8%), respectively, in 2024/25. Combined 2024/25 global ending stocks of the three major crops are projected to be down 3% YoY to 672MMT (vs. prior 681MMT), below consensus of 680MMT.

Click here for the full document and disclaimers.

Click here for more Industry News.