Our models track commodity prices, international currency exchange rates, total number of farms, total number of farms by gross production value. Here is our 2018 U.S. forecast and the rationale of how we arrived at those numbers.
2017 continues to appear to be a base-building period and, while large tractors are woefully below our original forecast, there is some evidence that they won’t go much lower in 2018.
Farm equipment sales history is replete with hills and valleys and we certainly are in a valley now. Traditionally, the range between the hilltop and the valley floor is about 20% in terms of unit sales.
Our data allows us to take a very objective view of the current situation in the agricultural equipment markets and all are pointing toward a solid base building this year. There are concerns about the export markets from several perspectives.
There are definitely signs that there is some strength building into the tractor markets as the year continues to progress. Confidence on rural main street remains high even though the political in-fighting in Washington D.C. roils.
Here is Glass Management Group’s discussion and analysis of the farm equipment sales report issued by the Assn. of Equipment Manufacturers on April 10, 2017.
There is a renewed sense of confidence within the country these days and the latest jobs report certainly supports these sentiments. This latest report nearly doubled the projected increase in jobs for the month of February and showed an increase in full time positions for the first time in many months.
After the release of our 2017 forecast last November, we have received several communications from readers who seem to have the same question; “What planet are you from?” They did not agree with our forecast and, from the looks of things, they might be right!
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In this episode of On the Record, brought to you by Associated Equipment Distributors, we take an initial look at the Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report and what dealers are forecasting for 2025.